TOUGH TIMES FOR UMNO

IT'S definitely not going to be easy for Umno to retain the parliamentary seat of Kuala Terengganu in the by-election this Saturday. This much has been conceded by my friends in the party and from statements made by Umno leaders who have been helping out in the campaign to boost the chances of Wan Farid Wan Salleh.

The personal attacks on the former deputy minister and political secretary to the prime minister must have been relentless, for never I have read so many public statements defending a candidate's demeanour, mannerism and looks! To try and offset the negative impact the rarely smiling and supposedly aloof Wan Farid has on voters, various Umno leaders have had to talk about the advantages of Kuala Terengganu being represented by the same party as at the federal level and of having a Member of Parliament who will be given back his job in the federal administration if he wins. It's almost like a scramble.

One source said that to make matters worse, Wan Farid is trying to fill the vacuum left by the popular and likeable Razali Ismail who died in November while playing badminton. Razali was said to have won during the general elections in 2004 and 2008 because of the strong support given him by the education fraternity. He was highly regarded in that respect and was once the state education director. In 2004 Razali won against Dr. Syed Azman Syed Ahmad of Pas by 1,933 votes, followed by a victory by 648 votes last March against Mohamed Sabu of Pas and independent Maimun Yusuf. But crucially there were 931 spoilt votes in 2008. Maimun had 685 votes.

KT has four state seats and looks to be slightly tilting in favour of Pas, which now controls three of the seats. In 2004 it was an even split between Umno and the Barisan Nasional, with the MCA also winning one seat.

The other downside for Umno is said to be the choice of candidate. Some would like to see Zubir Embong contesting instead of Wan Farid. Zubir is the Umno divisional treasurer. In selecting Wan Farid, Umno has done the predictable, by respecting the political structure. Wan Farid too has talked about this, saying that if he was problematic surely he would not have won the party's divisional contest.

Maybe so but surely he knows that other factors could play a part to help one win a party post. Razali was not even the number two Umno man in the division and yet was a popular man. So too apparently is Zubir.

I believe it will all be down to little, little things; very localised issues. For that reason I'm surprised really with how some national Umno leaders have been trying to convince the constituents of the bigger picture, of the advantages of voting for an Umno man from the national perspective.

I'm sure the people of Kuala Terengganu who will be out to vote on Saturday will have it in the back of their minds that one seat this time is not going to make a significant difference to the national geo-political environment. The people who will be most affected by the result will instead be the senior national leaders for both Umno and the Pakatan Rakyat.